Amid all the swirling news reports, there are two pertinent questions. Does Iran have the ingredients for a nuclear bomb, and if they do, what will President Trump do about it?

Let’s start with the first question. Right off the bat, we have the admission that the IAEA has zero idea if the nuclear activity Iran has engaged in is peaceful, because – prepare your shocked faces – Iran REFUSES to cooperate with inspectors.

So, now we add to that the news that Iran had a missile test, along with threatening American bases in the area.

Iran announced that it successfully test-fired an advanced missile equipped with a two-ton warhead, significantly ratcheting up its war machine amid nuclear negotiations with the United States and threats of attacks on U.S. military installations.

Iran hailed the missile test as “a new achievement in its military capabilities” as part of the country’s “broader efforts to enhance its military readiness and defense power amid ongoing regional tensions.”

“Our most recent achievement came last week when we successfully tested a missile carrying a two-ton warhead, with excellent results,” Iranian defense minister Aziz Nasirzadeh publicly disclosed on Wednesday after a cabinet meeting. “We have made very good progress in defense affairs. Our operational forces are fully equipped.”

The test comes alongside U.S. preparations to evacuate embassy compounds in Iraq and other locations following Iranian threats.

Nasirzadeh promised earlier in the day that the Islamic Republic would attack American outposts across the Middle East if nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration stall.

“Some officials on the other side threaten conflict if negotiations don’t come to fruition,” the Iranian minister said. “If a conflict is imposed on us … all U.S. bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries.”

This open threat prompted Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to authorize a voluntary evacuation of civilian dependents from stations across the area.

A U.S. defense official told Fox News on Wednesday: “The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the CENTCOM AOR.”

The authorization affects U.S. bases throughout the CENTCOM area of responsibility, which includes key flashpoints like Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

It, however, mainly affects dependents who live in Bahrain near the U.S. Navy base.

Bahrain has a higher population of U.S. military dependents than other countries in the area.

No U.S. uniformed service members in the Middle East will be evacuating, two U.S. defense officials told Fox News.

On top of the voluntary evacuation, the entire American embassy in Baghdad is on standby to have all “non-essential” personnel evacuated. All signs are pointing to Iran being close to nuclear, and if that happens, the entire complexion of the Middle East will change. So much for those insisting that Iran had zero interest in developing a nuclear bomb.

Today @SecDef confirmed that Iran’s terrorist regime is actively working towards a nuclear weapon.

For the sake of our national security, the security of our allies, and millions of civilians in the region this cannot be allowed to happen.

— Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) June 11, 2025

President Trump has been consistent, despite his attempts to negotiate with Iran.

Trump with a clear message when asked if anything can be done to dial the temperature down with Iran:

“They can’t have a nuclear weapon. Very simple. We are not going to allow that” pic.twitter.com/Q24RXq4ci4

— AG (@AGHamilton29) June 11, 2025

If that is the red line for President Trump, then it seems Iran has rejected any overtures of a deal with their open aggression and missile testing. This leads us to the second question: what is President Trump prepared to do? The answer? Turn Israel loose.

U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.

The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department ordered non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to “heightened regional tensions,” and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.

President Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country’s nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.

The Trump administration has sought a deal with Iran to limit the country’s nuclear program, as international watchdogs say the country has continued to enrich uranium to near-weapons level. The talks are delicate, and it’s unclear how close the two sides are to a deal: Mr. Trump has said he will not accept any uranium enrichment by Iran, but Iranian leaders have indicated they won’t accept those terms, the president said earlier this week.

For years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been deeply skeptical of any deal with Iran. The two countries have been nemeses since Iran’s 1979 revolution. Netanyahu’s office says Israel has conducted “countless overt and covert operations” to stunt the growth of Iran’s nuclear program.

Last month, Mr. Trump said publicly he had urged Netanyahu not to strike Iran while his administration pursues negotiations with the regime.

“I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” Mr. Trump said.

If Iran outright rejects the United States’ attempt to get a nuclear deal, that would probably mean they are close to a breakthrough, and the entire negotiation has been a ploy for time. The way the Iranian defense minister is talking now is signaling that the moment may be at hand for them. All Iran would have to do would be to perform one nuclear test, and the entire balance of power would shift in the Middle East, and a new arms race would be on. Israel is not going to wait for Iran to go nuclear, and it would be hard to imagine that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu haven’t at least discussed the possibility of taking out the nuclear facilities. Trump himself even confirmed that earlier this week.

Trump’s clearly unhappy with Iran, warning that the alternative for Tehran is “very dire.”

When asked if his call with Netanyahu was about Iran, he shrugged: “What else? I’m not calling to talk about the weather.” pic.twitter.com/y61MoleR6T

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 9, 2025

Israel has been well prepared to strike Iran, and not just in the tit-for-tat way that they did when Iran sent drones and missiles to hit them (which Iron Dome thankfully intercepted). Joe Biden is no longer there to actively prevent Israel from hitting back.

It’s pretty clear that President Trump has tried to make a deal with Iran, hoping – probably naïvely – that more rational heads would see the appeal of a deal. If they entertained it at all, it was to make sure they got the time they needed to build a bomb. That time may have just come to an end, and with it, Trump’s patience and Netanyahu’s restraint.

Featured image via jorono on Pixabay, cropped, Pixabay license